» Download Audio


上面是视频的下载链接,以下是听写稿:

The Threat of Deflation
通货紧缩威胁下的美国经济

Willow Bay
Hello, and welcome to “Business Unusual”. I’m Willow Bay. It destroyed careers, businesses and lives 70 years ago during the Great Depression. But is deflation really a threat in today’s economy? Should we really be worried about falling prices? Economics correspondent Kathleen Hays joins us from New York for a closer look. Kathleen, “deflation,” we are hearing that word a bit these days.
威罗·贝
你好,欢迎来到《非常商业》,我是威罗·贝。70年前的大萧条时期,各项事业,各种商业活动和人们的生活都被摧毁了。但通货紧缩对今天的经济真的是一种威胁吗?我们应当对下跌的物价担心吗?为了更深入地了解,经济记者凯瑟琳·海斯在纽约加入我们,给我们更多的介绍。凯瑟琳,近期,我们对“通货紧缩”一词略有耳闻。

Kathleen Hays
Well, I think to talk about it, Willow, first of all, we have to put our head in a different place, because if you go into the stores and find bargains, that’s a plus. But if prices start spiraling lower, that could be a symptom of deeper trouble in the economy.
凯瑟琳·海斯
是的,威罗,我认为讨论它之前,我们首先必须改变一下我们的思考方式,因为如果你进了商店并找到了便宜货,那可是令人高兴的。但是,如果物价开始持续走低,那就有可能是经济深陷困境的一个征兆了。

Willow Bay
For years, US consumers have been waiting for this day: modern technology and access to cheap foreign imports are whittling down prices on everything from clothing to computers, to shiny new cars. Problem is, if heading into deflation, where even falling prices can be too much of a good thing.
威罗·贝
美国的消费者对今天这种情况等待已久:现代技术和外国廉价商品的进口使所有商品的价格大幅下降,从服装到电脑,到闪亮的新汽车。问题是,如果这一趋势长久以往下去,就意味着经济在走向通货紧缩。那时,原来是件好事的降价也就会物极必反了。

Stephen Roach
It usually doesn’t stop with the fact that you can buy things for less. There are companies who sell you these things, and this puts tremendous pressure on their operating margins and they have to cut cost. The risk is they would then have to turn to cut labor cost, which would be you, the consumers. SO you’d lose your job, or you’d lose your income.
斯蒂芬·罗其
你可以买到便宜商品仅仅反映事情的表面。卖给你商品的公司,将承受加在他们利润空间上的巨大压力,于是他们必须降低成本。危险的是他们可能不得不削减劳动力成本,而劳动力有可能就是你——消费者。所以,你可能失业,或失去你的收入。

Willow Bay
So even the Federal Reserve is saying it’s a risk policymakers can’t ignore.
威罗·贝
因此,连美联储也表示通货紧缩是决策者们不可忽视的风险。

Alan Greenspan
We have seen no evidence at this point that we are close to a dangerous point with respect to deflation. But, we are very consciously aware that we can not allow that to creep up on us unseen, so we put a lot of resources in examining and reevaluating this conclusion.
阿兰·格林斯潘
我们目前还没有看到任何征兆显示,我们已经接近通货紧缩的危险临界点。但是,我们的确意识到我们不能让它神不知鬼不觉地接近我们,因此,我们投入大量资源来检验、再评估这一结论。

Willow Bay
The last time the US experienced an outright and severe deflation was during the Great Depression of the 1930s. Prices fell more than 20 percent as bankruptcy soured, banks folded and jobs evaporated, pushing the nation’s unemployment rate up to 25 percent, and that’s the danger of deflation. When the value of your cash is actually falling, it creates the kind of fears that take dramatic moves by the government to get things rolling again.
威罗·贝
美国经历的上一次全面的,严重的通货紧缩是在20世纪30年代的在萧条时期。破产蔓延,银行倒闭,工作机会消失,导致物价下跌超过20%。全国的失业率高达25%,那便是通货紧缩的危险。当你手头的现金的实际价值下跌时,就会令人恐慌,政府就要采取大的动作来使一切恢复正常运转。

Franklin D. Roosevelt 
I can assure you, my friend, that it is safer to keep your money in a re-opened bank than it is to keep it under the mattress.
罗斯福总统
我能向你保证,我的朋友,把你的钱存进重新开业的银行比把它藏在床垫下更保险。

Willow Bay
Fast forward to 2002, and prices are falling again. The good news is that this is mostly confined to basic commodities and manufactured goods, whose prices are being pressured lower by a tense global competition. Prices of services like health care, legal fees, and tuition cost are still rising. And they make up about 80% of the US economy. The bad news is that even prices of services could be vulnerable, if an external shock, like a war with Iraq, or another terrorist attack, pushed the US economy back into recession. And with the Core Rate of consumer price inflation down to an annual rate just over 2 percent, the economy is much closer to the point where deflation becomes a real possibility.
威罗·贝
迈向2002年,物价又在下跌。好消息是价格下跌的大多是基本日用品和成品,它们的下降是激烈的全球竞争造成的。各种服务的价格,如医疗,法律和教育费用一直在上涨。而它们在美国经济中占大约80%的比重。坏消息是如果一场外部的冲击,如与伊拉克的战争,或另一次恐怖袭击,把美国经济推回到衰退之中,即使服务的价格都可能变得脆弱。随着消费物价膨胀的核心参数降到每年仅仅略高于2%,美国经济就非常接近可能发生的通货紧缩了。

Alan Blinder
Just off the top of my head, I think of it as a 15,20 percent probability, which is a lot of different than I would have told you a year ago. I would have said 0.
阿兰·布兰德
我一直在想这个问题,我认为它出现的几率是15%到20%,这同我一年前可能对你说的大相径庭,我那时可能会说几率是零。

Kathleen Hays
That is the kind of thing that leads to deflation, but again, most people still put pretty low odds on it, thank goodness.
凯瑟琳·海斯
这就是有关通货紧缩的情况,但多数人依旧是对它不以为然,谢天谢地。