爱思英语编者按:现在是21世纪,懂得怎样阅读小说,写写文章或推导切线斜率,已经无法满足当下的需求了。你需要知道怎样在数据的汪洋里劈波斩浪,怎样优化推客上的散文,以及怎样揭露那些说谎的统计数据。21世纪的我们,需要重新审视以前的大学教育,与时俱进,以下七项,确实是我们每个人亟需补充的技能。

7 Essential Skills You Didn't Learn in College
7种大学之外必学的技能

It's the 21st century. Knowing how to read a novel, craft an essay, and derive the slope of a tangent isn't enough anymore. You need to know how to swim through the data deluge, optimize your prose for Twitter, and expose statistics that lie. In the following pages, you'll find our updated core curriculum, which fills in the gaps of your 20th-century education with the tools you need now. Call it the neoliberal arts: higher learning for highly evolved humans.
现在是21世纪了。懂得怎样阅读小说、写写文章或推导切线斜率,已经无法满足当下的需求了。你需要知道怎样在数据的汪洋里劈波斩浪,怎样优化推客上的散文,以及怎样揭露那些说谎的统计数据。在下面几页里,你会看到我们更新版核心课程,借助现在必需的工具,它们将为20世纪教育查漏补缺。权且称之为新式人文科学:面向高度进化人类的高等教育。

Statistical Literacy
统计素养

Why take this course?
为什么要学这一课程?http://www.24en.com爱思英语网

We are misled by numbers and by our misunderstanding of probability.
我们或被数字所误导,或被自己对概率的错误理解所误导。

What you'll learn:
你将学到什么:http://www.24en.com爱思英语网

How to parse polls, play the odds, and embrace uncertainty.
怎样剖析投票,怎样碰碰运气,以及怎样接受不确定性。

we use only 10 percent of our brain! That familiar statement is false—there's no evidence to support it. Still, something about it just sounds right, so we internalize it and repeat it. Such is the power—and danger—of statistics.
我们只用了大脑的10%!这个熟知的说法是错的——没有证据能支持它。然而,该说法听起来有些像对的,因而我们吸收并不断重复它。这便是统计的力量,也是统计的危险。http://www.24en.com爱思英语网

Our world is shaped by widespread statistical illiteracy. We fear things that probably won't kill us (terrorist attacks) and ignore things that probably will (texting while driving). We buy lottery tickets. We fall prey to misleading gut instincts, which lead to biases like loss aversion—an inability to gauge risk against potential gain. The effects play out in the grocery store, the office, and the voting booth (not to mention the bedroom: People who are more risk-averse are less successful in love).http://www.24en.com爱思英语网
统计无知影响着我们世界的发展。我们担心那些可能不会害死我们的事情(如恐怖袭击),却忽略那些可能害死我们的事情(如驾驶时发短信)。我们买彩票。我们深受直觉误导之害,直觉会让我们产生偏见,如损失厌恶——估计不到风险背后的潜在收益。其效果屡屡作用于杂货店、办公室和投票站(更不用提卧室了:越是不愿承担风险的人,爱情越容易失败)。

And it's getting worse: We are now 53 percent more likely than our parents to trust polls of dubious merit. (That figure is totally made up. See?) Where do all these numbers that we remember so easily and cite so readily come from? How are they calculated, and by whom? How do we misuse them to make them say what we want them to? We'll explore all of these questions in a sequence on sourcing statistics.
而情况变得更糟的是:与父母相比,我们对可疑成绩的投票的信任度上升了53%。(这一数字完全是捏造出来的吗?)所有这些我们轻松记住、随手拈来的数字从何而来?它们怎么计算出来的,谁计算的?我们怎样滥用这些数字,以使之得出我们想要的结果?我们将在统计溯源的系列里探讨所有这些问题。http://www.24en.com爱思英语网

Next, this course will turn to the topic of probabilistic intuition. We'll learn to judge what's likely and unlikely—and what's impossible to know. We'll learn about distorting habits of mind like selection bias—and how to guard against them. We'll gamble. We'll read The Art of Probability for Scientists and Engineers by Richard Hamming, Expert Political Judgment by Philip Tetlock, and How to Cheat Your Friends at Poker by Penn Jillette and Mickey Lynn.http://www.24en.com爱思英语网
接下来,该课程会转到概率直觉的主题上。我们将学习判断什么是可能的,什么是不可能的,还有什么是不可知的。我们将学习头脑的曲解习惯,如选择性偏倚,以及怎样对其进行防范。我们还将赌一把。我们将阅读理查德·汉明(Richard Hamming)[注1]所著《The Art of Probability for Scientists and Engineers》、菲利浦·泰洛克(Philip Tetlock)[注2]所著《Expert Political Judgment》,以及佩恩·吉列特(Penn Jillette)[注3]和米基·林恩(Mickey Lynn)所著《How to Cheat Your Friends at Poker》。

Finally, we'll learn how to use statistics to our advantage. You don't have to be an actuary to understand just how likely various potential outcomes actually are.http://www.24en.com爱思英语网
最后,我们将学习怎样利用统计数据的优势。如果只是了解各种潜在结果到底可不可能,你用不着成为精算师。

注1:理查德·汉明(1915-1998):美国著名数学家,主要贡献在计算机科学与通信学,曾获ACM图灵奖。
注2:菲利浦·泰洛克:美国加州大学伯克利分校心理学、商业和政治学教授。
注3:佩恩·吉列特:美国魔术师、音乐家。