瑞士银行瑞信的分析师称,最富有人士虽然人数仅占全球人口1%,但占有的财富相当于全球半数以上家庭财富总和。他们预计,未来几年贫富差距还将扩大,尤其是“千禧一代”生活将特别艰难。

The richest 1% now owns more than half of all the world’s household wealth, according to analysts at Credit Suisse. And they say inequality is only going to get worse over the coming years, with millennials having a particularly tough time.

最近瑞信发布了最新版《全球财富报告》。瑞信在同日发布的声明中还提到一句公认的常识:“百万富翁比财富金字塔底层的人前途更光明。”

The Swiss bank released its latest Global Wealth Report on Tuesday, together with a statement that contained the immortal phrase, “The outlook for the millionaire segment is more optimistic than for the bottom of the wealth pyramid.”

瑞信研究显示,按美元计全球百万富翁越来越多。这部分源于欧元升值,德国、法国、意大利和西班牙合计增加了62万名百万富翁。(另一方面,英镑和日元贬值则导致英国和日本各自减少了3.4万和30万名百万富翁。)

The research showed that there are increasing numbers of dollar millionaires. This is partly because the strength of the euro has created 620,000 more of them in Germany, France, Italy and Spain (conversely, depreciating currencies in the U.K. and Japan have seen 34,000 and over 300,000 people in those countries respectively lose the status).

但将近半数新增的美元资产百万富翁都出自美国。瑞信国际财富管理业务首席投资官迈克尔·奥沙利文指出:“目前来看,特朗普政府治理下,企业蓬勃发展,就业增长,美联储持续的支持也起到了一定作用,但贫富差距仍然是突出的问题。”

But almost half of the new dollar millionaires are in the U.S. itself. “So far, the Trump Presidency has seen businesses flourish and employment grow, though the ongoing supportive role played by the Federal Reserve has undoubtedly played a part here as well, and wealth inequality remains a prominent issue,” said Michael O’Sullivan, CIO for International Wealth Management at Credit Suisse.

瑞信预计,到2022年美元资产的百万富翁将增加22%,从3600万人增加到4400万人。问题是,同期资产不足1万美元的成年人可能仅会减少4%。

Credit Suisse expects to see a 22% rise in dollar millionaires by 2022, from 36 million to 44 million. The problem is, the numbers of adults who have less than $10,000 are expected to shrink by only 4%.

瑞信的研究员认为财富不平等主要源自金融危机,并在2007年到2016年逐渐蔓延全球,原因是金融资产增长速度超过了非金融类资产。本世纪初,占总人口1%的最富有人士拥有财富占全世界的45.5%,如今这一比例升至50.1%。

The bank’s researchers see wealth inequality as largely being a result of the financial crisis— it rose across the world between 2007 and 2016, because financial assets were growing faster than non-financial assets. The top 1% started the millennium owning 45.5% of all wealth, and now they have 50.1%.

瑞信认为,2016年年中以来形势比较复杂,非金融类资产相关财富增长“显著”,可贫富差距还在扩大。

As for what’s been happening since mid-2016, Credit Suisse described a mixed picture. Non-financial wealth has been increasing “substantially,” but inequality is still rising.

研究人员称:“今年非洲、亚太和拉丁美洲的成年人人均财富增加,但个人财富中位值再次下滑。我们对2022年的预测显示,未来几年情况更不乐观。”

“Despite higher mean wealth per adult, median wealth fell again this year in Africa, Asia-Pacific and Latin America. Our projections for 2022 suggest more pessimistic scenarios for the immediate years ahead,” the researchers said.

“全球财富分配底层有35亿人,他们占全球成年人总人口的70%,个人财富均不足1万美元。在年轻人里,处于财富底层的人占比更高,他们几乎没有机会积攒资产。我们发现,跟其他年龄段的人相比,千禧一代面对的挑战尤其大。”这些研究人员写道。

“Looking at the bottom of the wealth distribution, 3.5 billion people—corresponding to 70% of all adults in the world—own less than $10,000. Those with low wealth tend to be disproportionately found among the younger age groups, who have had little chance to accumulate assets, but we find that millennials face particularly challenging circumstances compared to other generations,” they wrote.

本质上来说,千禧一代更有可能失业、收入较低、买不起房,而且可能拿不到养老金。1954年到1964年出生的婴儿潮一代占据大部分财富和房产,所以“比起父母年轻时,千禧一代生活要惨一些。”

Essentially, millennials are more likely to be unemployed or earning less, priced out of the housing market, and unable to get a pension. Baby boomers have most of the wealth and the housing, so “millennials are doing less well than their parents at the same age.”

千禧一代可能比前几代人受教育多,但瑞信的研究人员预计,只有“少数成功人士以及在科技、金融等高需求行业工作的人,才有机会克服‘千禧一代的劣势’。”

Millennials may be better educated than earlier generations, but Credit Suisse’s researchers said they expected only a “minority of high achievers and those in high-demand sectors such as technology or finance to effectively overcome the ‘millennial disadvantage.'”