1.png

Reuters/Jeff Christensen

路透社/ Jeff Christensen

The best way to watch for the next big market bubble is to watch tech companies, says Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)表示,关注下一个市场泡沫的最佳方式是看科技公司。

In particular, investors should be watching for divergence between tech stocks and tech companies with high-yield credit ratings.

特别是,投资者应该关注科技股和高收益信用评级的科技公司之间的差异。

For signs of the next big market bubble, your best bet is to watch tech companies.

对于下一个市场泡沫的迹象,你最好的选择是看科技公司。

After all, the tech bubble that swelled in the late 1990s, then burst in spectacular fashion in the early 2000s, is one of the most glaring examples of investor overexuberance in recent memory.

毕竟,上世纪90年代末出现的科技泡沫,在21世纪初的21世纪初以惊人的方式爆发,是最近投资者过度活跃的最明显例证之一。

So in order to prepare for the inevitable next bubble, Bank of America Merrill Lynch recommends watching the relationship between stock prices and bond yields in the tech sector. As shown in the chart below, the tech-heavy Nasdaq index has been closely tracking the ratio between tech stocks with a junk bond rating and those with investment-grade credit.

因此,为了应对不可避免的下一个泡沫,美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)建议,关注科技板块股票价格与债券收益率之间的关系。如下图所示,以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数一直在密切跟踪科技股与垃圾债券评级与投资级信用评级之间的比率。

But that wasn't always the case. In the time around the dotcom bubble, the two measures traded independently of one another. BAML says to watch for this type of divergence, because it's likely to occur when another bubble is swelling.

但事实并非总是如此。在互联网泡沫时期,这两项措施相互独立。BAML说,要观察这种类型的差异,因为当另一个泡沫膨胀时,它很可能会发生。

2.png

Screen Shot 2017 12 15 at 3.18.11 PMBank of America Merrill Lynch

屏幕截图2017年12月15日3.18.11美银美林

The next bubble will likely follow the template established during prior instances, and not just those that occurred in the US, says BAML. Generally speaking, previous bubbles have been characterized by similarly torrid gains in stock prices and bond yields. BAML provides three particularly high-profile examples:

BAML说,下一个泡沫可能会遵循在以前的例子中建立的模板,而不仅仅是发生在美国的模板。一般来说,以前的泡沫的特点是股价和债券收益率同样强劲。BAML提供了三个特别引人注目的例子:

Japan, 1989 — The Nikkei surged 31% as Japanese government bond yields rose 170 basis points

日本,1989年——日经指数飙升31%,日本国债收益率上升170个基点

US, 1999 — The Nasdaq Composite index exploded 230% higher as Treasury yields increased 220 basis points

美国,1999年 - 纳斯达克综合指数暴涨230%,因美国国债收益率上涨220个基点

China, 2007 — The Shanghai Composite index soared 200% as Chinese yields climbed 160 basis points

中国,2007年 - 上证综合指数飙升200%,因中国收益率上升160个基点

With this warning in mind, it's important to note that BAML chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett has been making bearish proclamations for months. A month ago, after a fund manager survey conducted by his firm showed a record number of investors are taking higher-than-normal risk, Hartnett said that the market was showing "irrational exuberance."

考虑到这一警告,值得注意的是,BAML首席投资策略师迈克尔•哈特尼特(Michael Hartnett)数月来一直在做悲观的声明。一个月前,在他的公司进行的一项基金经理调查显示,创纪录的投资者承担着高于正常风险的风险后,哈特尼特表示,市场表现出“非理性繁荣”。

He's also noted that expectations around a "Goldilocks" economy — one characterized by high growth and low inflation — are at an all-time high. And even before that, in July, he warned that central-bank tightening could pop what he described as a bubble in risk assets.

他还指出,围绕“高发展”和“低通货膨胀”的“金发姑娘”经济的预期处于历史最高水平。甚至在7月份之前,他警告说,央行的紧缩政策可能会 引发他所谓的风险资产泡沫。

But just because the reckoning hasn't struck yet doesn't mean the market is in the clear, with potential bubbles slowly forming across a number of asset classes. Considering the historical precedent that's been set, Hartnett's warnings should still be heeded. So keep an eye on tech.

但仅仅因为计算还没有到来,并不意味着市场是清晰的,潜在的泡沫在许多资产类别中慢慢形成。 考虑到已经确立的历史先例,哈奈特的警告仍应予以注意。所以请留意技术。

本文为爱思英语原创内容,转载文章请注明来源。