爱思英语编者按:据报道,欧洲的财经高官们近日讨论了限制ATM取款金额、实行边境检查和欧元区资本控制等措施,以应对希腊退出欧元区的最坏情形。欧洲官员透露,这些选项都在欧盟讨论的一系列应急方案之列。

消息人士透露,在最近六周的电话会议上,欧洲官员们都讨论到了上述议题。尽管各国在电话会议中未作出任何决定,但由欧元区副财长和财政部主管组成的欧元集团工作小组成员已在商讨上述选项的一些细节。欧洲官员们强调,上述讨论只是为了对任何不测事件做好准备,而不是说官方预计希腊退出会真的发生。在面对媒体时,这些欧盟官员也无一预期希腊会退出欧元区。但鉴于6月17日大选前希腊的政治不确定性上升,欧元区现在更有必要准备好应急计划。

导读:希腊,救,还是不救?这已经是第二次了。如果救,会不会有第三次?如果不救,希腊就会退出欧元区,其他国家会不会效仿?有没有一种方法,既可以防止以后第三次救助的“道德风险”,又可以阻止希腊退出欧元市场?本文会一一为您解答。

Leaving the euro

离开欧元区

My big fat Greek divorce

希腊的超级离婚

How and whether Greece might exit is the biggest and fattest uncertainty of all

希腊是否退出与怎样退出已成为最大的疑问

ON JUNE 17th the brinkmanship on the Aegean will take another twist. Even if the New Democracy party manages to form a government it will seek to renegotiate the terms set earlier this year by European creditor nations for Greece’s second bail-out. If instead the victor is Syriza, the left-of-centre group bent on scrapping the deal, the markets fear that this will lead ineluctably to Greece leaving the euro and inflicting heavy collateral damage on the rest of the euro zone on the way. But there is nothing automatic about the precise timing and mechanism of a “Grexit”.

6月17日,爱琴海的边缘政策将成为头条新闻。即使新民主党着手于组建新政府,欧盟也会重新协商欧洲债权国对希腊的二次救助,而这个协定早在今年年初就开始讨论了。如果获胜者不是Syriza党(一心想赖账的左翼组织),那么市场则会担心希腊会不可避免的退出欧盟,与此同时造成对欧盟其他国家的附带伤害。但是,对于“希腊式退出”的精确定位和反应机制来说,这一切并不是“自然而然”发生的。

If Alexis Tsipras, Syriza’s leader, were unilaterally to announce a debt moratorium, as he has threatened to do, then this would almost certainly precipitate a swift exit. All bail-out funds would be cut off. With Greece defaulting on its debt, the European Central Bank (ECB) would no longer be prepared to permit the provision of liquidity for Greece’s tottering banks. If the Bank of Greece did not comply with the ECB’s ruling, Greece could in the last resort be cut off from the euro zone’s payments system, points out Malcolm Barr, an economist at JPMorgan. The Greek government would have to reintroduce the drachma, which would immediately plunge in value against the euro.

如果Syriza 党领导人Alexis Tsipras像他曾经威胁的那样单方面宣布延期偿还债务,那么这将必定促使希腊迅速退出欧盟。所有的救助基金将被终止。随着希腊的违约,欧洲中央银行(简称ECB)将不再对苟延残喘的希腊银行提供流动资金。摩根大通的经济学家Malcolm Barr指出,如果希腊银行不服从欧洲中央银行的决定,那么希腊将不得不被欧元区支付体系除名。希腊政府会重新引入德拉克马币,并会立即相对欧元贬值。

But Mr Tsipras would have to form a coalition and would be constrained by his partners. And he has not campaigned to leave the euro, which remains popular in Greece. He is calculating that Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, will blink at the prospect of the wider costs of a Greek exit. He believes that she will not want to be seen as forcing Greece out of the euro, not least since on strict legal grounds a country can neither leave nor be forced to leave the currency union.

但Tsipras先生将组建一个联盟,并且他会受到其同僚的限制。他也并未以希腊的火热话题——“离开欧元区”参与竞选。他盘算着德国总理Angela Merkel会对希腊退出产生的各种成本有所忌惮,认为Merkel女士不想看到希腊被迫退出欧元区。至少从法律依据上讲,一个国家不能随意退出或被迫退出这个货币联盟。

Even a Syriza victory will thus probably lead in the first place to negotiations. While these are taking place, there would be no bail-out money to fill the hole in Greece’s primary budget (ie, excluding interest). But Greece would still need funding to avoid default, since it must also service debt and redeem maturing bonds, notably one held by the ECB due to be repaid in August. One suggestion is that the Europeans could channel bail-out financing to meet such payments through the “escrow account”, a segregated account at the Bank of Greece set up as part of the second bail-out to ensure that Greece honours its debts. A precedent for this was set in May, after the first inconclusive election, when a payment of €4.2 billion ($5.3 billion) was made to Greece, most of which went to cover another maturing bond held by the ECB.

如果Syriza党竞选胜出,那么可能因此首先导致重新协商。随着这一连串事件的发生,将没有二次救助基金来填补希腊首要预算的真空(也就是说,还没有计算利息率)。但是希腊仍然需要基金来避免拖欠,因为希腊要在发新债的同时还旧债,尤其是还要还欧洲中央银行八月份到期的债。有人建议,欧盟可以通过“代管账户”来引导二次救助的融资,进而支撑希腊偿还债务。所谓的“代管账户”就是建立一个希腊银行的独立账户作为二次救助的一部分,以确定希腊重视他们的债务。这在五月份曾经有过先例。那是在首次非结束性选举之后,希腊得到了42亿欧元(合53亿美元)。其中的大部分都用来填补欧洲中央银行另一份到期债务。

Even if this tortuous routing of European bail-out money to the ECB helped avoid an immediate default, any new Greek government would face huge strains. When the second rescue was approved, Greece looked close to balancing its primary budget. In March the IMF envisaged a 2012 deficit of just €2 billion (1% of GDP) and a surplus of €3.7 billion in 2013. But such forecasts have been overtaken by events. Fearing the worst, the Greeks are holding back on taxes (revenues were €495m below target in the first four months of 2012) and the government is postponing payments to suppliers.

ECB提供的二次救助款可谓是一个“曲折路线”,即便这个曲折路线有助于避免了马上就要延期偿还的悲剧,新组建的希腊政府仍然要面对巨大的限制。当二次救助得以证实,希腊就会盼着离首要预算平衡更近一步。今年三月,IMF(国际货币基金组织)设想希腊2012年的赤字仅仅为20亿欧元(约GDP的1%),在2013年甚至达到37亿欧元的盈余。但这种预测现在看来还是痴人说梦。想想最坏的情况吧:希腊人已被税收情况拖后腿了(政府收益在2012年的前四个月低于目标4.95亿欧元),政府也已经延期付款给供应商了。

Some economists think that Greece could nonetheless avoid a sudden departure from the euro. The government could pay some of its bills by issuing its own IOUs direct to its domestic creditors. These notes (“scrip”) would start to circulate at a steep discount to euros. In effect, argues Thomas Mayer, an adviser to Deutsche Bank, Greece could create its own parallel and depreciated currency while still remaining in the monetary union.

一些经济学家认为,尽管有如此多的风险,希腊至少可以避免与欧盟的突然分离。对于账单欠款,政府可以先对国内债权人打上欠条。这些欠条(以股代息)会以大折扣的方式对欧盟核算。德意志银行的顾问Thomas Mayer则认为,这样希腊可以创造一个并列、廉价的“流通货币”而且同时不退出欧洲货币联盟。

Something similar happened in Argentina as it struggled to retain its rigid link between the peso and the dollar before the link eventually snapped in early 2002. Bankrupt regional governments started to pay their workers in scrip, such as the patacones issued by Buenos Aires Province. But these desperate measures were desperately unpopular because the patacones immediately fell in value. Within just a few months, the Argentine government restricted withdrawals of bank deposits, defaulted on its debts and broke the link with the dollar, allowing the peso to devalue.

同样的情景在阿根廷也再现了。在2002年上半年阿根廷宣布比索贬值以前,阿根廷一直苦撑于保持比索与美元的等价挂钩。破产地区政府开始向他们的工人打白条了,比如Buenos Aires省发行的patacones小票。但是这种无可奈何的政策是绝对不受欢迎的,因为desperate小票马上就贬值了。仅仅几个月,阿根廷政府开始限制银行提款,拖延债务,取消对美元的挂钩,允许比索贬值。

Mario Blejer, who was Argentina’s central-bank governor in the middle of the crisis, says that resorting to scrip would be even worse than creating a new currency outright (which he thinks would be disastrous). It would create monetary chaos and generate inflationary pressure before the exit that would inevitably ensue.

身陷危机的阿根廷中央银行行长Mario Blejer声称,创造新货币也许是灾难性的,但打白条比公然创造新货币更加恶劣。这将会制造货币混乱并产生通胀压力,并最终还是要不可避免的退出货币联盟。

Any negotiations between Mr Tsipras and Greece’s creditors may in any case be short-circuited. Greece’s bank run could turn into a sprint after the election, making the country ever more reliant on the ECB for emergency funding. If the condition for further support is compliance with the terms of the bail-out, then it may be Mr Tsipras who blinks after all. If he doesn’t, then Greece could indeed leave the euro in a rush after the election.

任何在Tsipras先生和希腊债权人之间的协商都会不可避免的造成一定程度的“短路”。在大选之后,希腊的银行将开始一段冲刺,这就让这个国家在ECB的紧急输血之下更加自力更生。如果获得进一步支持的条件是服从救助条款,那么Tsipras多少要回避这一点。如果他不回避,希腊将在大选之后留给欧盟一个烂摊子。