Brexit Would Cause “Contagion” Across Europe
英国脱欧恐“传染”全欧
(选自《英语世界》2016年第6期)

文/威尔·马丁 译/杨树锋
By Will Martin

英国脱欧恐“传染”全欧

With the official date for the UK’s referendum about whether or not leave the European Union now set, the debate has been steadily gaining more and more attention in recent weeks. Everyone from politicians to actors to sportspeople has been giving their opinion on whether the UK should remain or leave, and big banks have been no exception to that.
英国公投确定是否脱离欧盟的正式日期已定,这场争论赢得的关注近几周持续增加。对于英国究竟是留是走,从政客到演员到运动员,都各抒己见,大银行当然也不例外。

American giant Morgan Stanley has become the latest to weigh in[1] with its opinion, and its not just focusing on what will happen to Britain, but also the wider impacts across Europe.
最近就此置评的是美国金融业巨头摩根士丹利,其关注焦点不限于英脱后什么会降临不列颠,还扩展至波及全欧的更大冲击。

In a note sent on Monday[2] evening, Morgan Stanley analysts led by Elga Bartsch took an in-depth look at what a Brexit[3]—Britain leaving the EU—would mean for the rest of Europe. The 43-page note is loaded with great charts and data about a potential Brexit. The news, Morgan Stanley says, wouldn’t be good.
在周一晚推出的报告中,由埃尔加·巴尔奇领衔的摩根士丹利分析师团队深入研判了“英脱”——即英国脱离欧盟——对欧洲余部可能意味着什么。这份43页的报告中列举了大量关于潜在英脱的图表和数据。摩根士丹利称,这可能不是好消息。

As part of the “What Brexit Would Mean For Europe” note, Morgan Stanley identifies four big areas where the impact of Britain leaving the EU would spill over to the rest of Europe.
在这份题为《英脱对欧洲意味什么》的报告中,摩根士丹利圈划出英脱影响可能蔓延至欧洲余部的四大领域。

Here’s what MS has to say (emphasis ours):
下面是摩根士丹利的论述(加粗重点系本文作者所加):

In the event of a Brexit, its implications would reach well beyond the UK to the rest of Europe. Some countries look more exposed than others, but the overall impact would be negative for growth, negative for the euro, and negative for European equity markets.
如果英脱成真,其影响将远远超出联合王国而扩展至欧洲其他地区。某些国家看起来更易受冲击,但总体来看,无论对增长,对欧元,还是对欧洲股市,影响都是负面的。

In other words, areas of “contagion” which would be a big hit for the economic and political situation across Europe.
换言之,“感染”领域对于全欧洲的经济和政治局势而言可谓重创。

Let’s take a look at each one of these areas of impact from the section of the note named “Brexit Channels of Contagion.”
基于报告中题为“英脱感染渠道”一节,让我们一一了解这些冲击领域。

First up, uncertainty. This is what Morgan Stanley has to say (again, emphasis ours):
首当其冲的是,不确定性。摩根士丹利的论述(加粗重点仍为作者所加)为:

Brexit would open a lengthy period of uncertainty. The initial equity market reaction would be negative, currency markets volatile, and investment may take a hit.
英脱将开启一段漫长的不确定时期。最初,股市的反应将为负面,货币市场波动,投资遭受打击。

Next, trade. Morgan Stanley again:
其次是,贸易。摩根士丹利解释道:

The trading relationship the UK has with the rest of the EU will not be as beneficial, as ‘free’, as it is at present. This, and the lengthy period of uncertainty around the exit negotiation will have taken its toll on UK growth and dampened demand for eurozone goods.
英国与欧盟其余国家的贸易关系将不再像当前一样有益,一样“自由”。这一点,伴随围绕退出谈判的漫长不确定时期,终将伤及英国的经济增长并抑制对欧元区货物的需求。

Third, the issue of migration, which has been one of the hottest topics across the continent in the past few years. Here’s another comment from MS:
第三,移民问题,过去几年整个欧洲大陆最热话题之一。摩根士丹利持论如下:

Near-term the biggest risk is probably that post-Brexit migration control policies in the UK help boost the anti-immigration cause throughout the rest of Europe especially where some countries are struggling to accommodate a sharp increase in refugees. That will be especially the case to the extent that UK migration restrictions are seen as increasing the inflows elsewhere and because new UK policies may resonate in the policy debate elsewhere.
近期最大的风险可能在于,英国脱欧后的移民控制政策会助推遍及欧洲其余国家的反移民运动,尤其在那些正竭力接纳飙升难民的国家。英国对移民的限制被认为增加了其他地区的移民流入,从这个意义上看,这一助推效应尤为显著,还有一个原因就是英国的新政策可能与其他地区的政策辩论产生共鸣。

The final issue, Morgan Stanley says, is that of politics. Here’s the bank:
末了的问题,摩根士丹利说,事关政治。他们认为:

Should the UK leave the EU, the fact that someone managed to change the status quo could potentially galvanise the protest parties, which may step up their demands. This can play out through national independence claims and anti-EU or eurozone movements.
如果英国脱离欧盟,有人成功改变现状这一事实很可能刺激各个抗议团体,使其要求加码。戏码可能演变成主张民族独立以及反欧盟或欧元区运动。

All of this sounds pretty dreadful. Trade will suffer, markets will be racked by uncertainty, political protest parties will gain traction, and the migration crisis could get even worse.
一切听起来均相当可怖。贸易受损,市场任由不确定性劫掠,政治抗议团体阵脚日稳,移民危机则可能趋于恶化。

However, you probably don’t need to worry too much about this happening though. Morgan Stanley currently predicts there’s just a 35% chance that Britain will vote for Brexit, and even if the UK does vote to leave on June 23, there are some upsides, the bank says.
但是,读者可能无需对此情景过虑。摩根士丹利目前预测,英国公投支持英脱的可能性仅有 35%,而且,即便6月23日英国果真投票离开,该机构认为,好事也有几桩。

Here’s Morgan Stanley one last time:
最后一次搬出摩根士丹利的观点如下:

Some exports that would have come from the UK, portfolio inflows and FDI destined for the UK, could be re-routed to the rest of Europe and the relocation of some financial-services business could boost eurozone economies. But the latter effect, in particular, seems likely to work relatively slowly. Longer term, less migration to the UK may give European, especially some CEEMEA[4] economies, a population boost, but this effect is likely to be very modest, at least at first.
某些本应出自英国的出口产品、流入的投资组合以及原本投向英国的外商直接投资,将可能被重新引导到欧洲其他国家,某些金融服务业务的搬迁可能促进欧元区经济体的发展。但后一个效应要真正奏效看来尤其缓慢。长期而言,进入英国的移民减少可能会给欧洲,尤其是中东欧、中东和非洲的某些经济体,带来人口增长,但这一效应——起码最初——可能无甚可观。

注释:

[1] 加入。
[2] 2016 年 3 月 7 日。
[3] = British exit (from the EU).
[4] = Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa.